Author: Tom Britton
Title: Basic prediction methodology for covid-19: estimation and sensitivity considerations Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: hsgzkpg4_3
Snippet: Many papers use advanced models combined with extensive simulations to analyse and predict the outcome of the ongoing covid-19 pandemic (e.g. [3] , [5] [6] ). Here we complement this important literature with much simpler methods. Most likely this has the effect that estimation and prediction is less accurate than more advanced well-motivated methods. On the other hand, the methods presented here are much simpler and hence more transparent, thus .....
Document: Many papers use advanced models combined with extensive simulations to analyse and predict the outcome of the ongoing covid-19 pandemic (e.g. [3] , [5] [6] ). Here we complement this important literature with much simpler methods. Most likely this has the effect that estimation and prediction is less accurate than more advanced well-motivated methods. On the other hand, the methods presented here are much simpler and hence more transparent, thus allowing any reader to apply the methods to quickly obtain ball-park estimates for the most important parameters/quantities. For a more thourough statistical investigation we propose that the simple analysis presented here should be complemented with more realistic advanced models.
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