Between Geography and Demography: Key Interdependencies and Exit Mechanisms for Covid-19

Antonio Scala; Andrea Flori; Alessandro Spelta; Emanuele Brugnoli; Matteo Cinelli; Walter Quattrociocchi; Fabio Pammolli

Let us consider the effects of such lockdown measures on the parameters of our model. The rate γ is the most unaffected, since it is related to the "medical" evolution of the disease; analogous arguments apply to the probability ρ of developing a condition serious enough to be observed (although variations in testing schemes and alert thresholds could influence such parameter) and to the rate h of exiting such a condition. On the other hand, the transmission coefficient β can be thought as the product of a contact rate times a diseasedependent transmission probability. Hence, if we assume that the speed of 2 Those data are part of the Facebook project "Data for Good", and illustrates where users, who allowed the social network to track their location, moved. See https://dataforgood.fb.com/docs/Covid-19/ .