Author: Guorong Ding; Xinru Li; Yang Shen; Jiao Fan
Title: Brief Analysis of the ARIMA model on the COVID-19 in Italy Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: ilwsrir6_18
Snippet: Although the second-order difference of the sequence shows stationarity. We do want to mention, however, that overfitting can be used as a diagnostic tool, which will lose important information of the original sequence, it is not always the case that more is better. Overfitting leads to less-precise estimators, and adding more parameters may fit the data better but may also lead to bad forecasts. So, in this paper we first perform a logarithmic t.....
Document: Although the second-order difference of the sequence shows stationarity. We do want to mention, however, that overfitting can be used as a diagnostic tool, which will lose important information of the original sequence, it is not always the case that more is better. Overfitting leads to less-precise estimators, and adding more parameters may fit the data better but may also lead to bad forecasts. So, in this paper we first perform a logarithmic transformation on the cumulative confirmed original sequence, and then performs a first-order difference based on the logarithmic sequence. The differential logarithmic sequence is shown in Figure 2 . . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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