Author: Lorenzo Pellis; Francesca Scarabel; Helena B Stage; Christopher E Overton; Lauren H K Chappell; Katrina A Lythgoe; Elizabeth Fearon; Emma Bennett; Jacob Curran-Sebastian; Rajenki Das; Martyn Fyles; Hugo Lewkowicz; Xiaoxi Pang; Bindu Vekaria; Luke Webb; Thomas A House; Ian Hall
Title: Challenges in control of Covid-19: short doubling time and long delay to effect of interventions Document date: 2020_4_15
ID: k5q07y4b_61
Snippet: We conclude that the estimates of R 0 are highly sensitive to small variations in quantities that are poorly supported by available data, but that for a growth rate of 0.25 day −1 , close to what is observed in Italy and the UK, are also generally larger, and possibly much larger, than official estimates [3, [12] [13] [14] [15] . Smaller values in this range are associated with significant amounts of pre-symptomatic transmission [34 ] , leading.....
Document: We conclude that the estimates of R 0 are highly sensitive to small variations in quantities that are poorly supported by available data, but that for a growth rate of 0.25 day −1 , close to what is observed in Italy and the UK, are also generally larger, and possibly much larger, than official estimates [3, [12] [13] [14] [15] . Smaller values in this range are associated with significant amounts of pre-symptomatic transmission [34 ] , leading to a generation time for example compatible with some of the shortest estimates of the serial interval seen in the literature [51 ] , and with a front-loaded infectivity curve (mean 2, rather than 3).
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