Author: Ottar N. Bjørnstad; Bryan T. Grenfell; Cecile Viboud; Aaron A. King
Title: Comparison of alternative models of human movement and the spread of disease Document date: 2019_12_19
ID: 7a5nxxar_7
Snippet: Using a spatially-extended time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) framework 103 (e.g., [4, 27] ), we can calculate, for each population center, the probability that a spatial 104 interaction happens (i.e., a contact between a resident susceptible host and a 105 non-resident infectious host) and that the contact results in a new local chain of 106 transmission [18] . In previous analyses, we showed that the signature of such events will.....
Document: Using a spatially-extended time series susceptible-infected-recovered (TSIR) framework 103 (e.g., [4, 27] ), we can calculate, for each population center, the probability that a spatial 104 interaction happens (i.e., a contact between a resident susceptible host and a 105 non-resident infectious host) and that the contact results in a new local chain of 106 transmission [18] . In previous analyses, we showed that the signature of such events will 107 be drowned out in the presence of endemic circulation (see [23] ). Following a local 108 extinction, however, the re-colonization rate contains critical information on the spatial 109 interactions.
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