Comparison of different exit scenarios from the lock-down for COVID-19 epidemic in the UK and assessing uncertainty of the predictions

Anatoly Zhigljavsky; Roger Whitaker; Ivan Fesenko; Yakov Kremnitzer; Jack Noonan

3.2 Sensitivity to c, the degree of separation of people from group G In Figures 10 and 11 , solid and dashed line styles (for red/blue colours) correspond to c = 1 and c = 0.5 respectively. By increasing c we significantly increase the death toll in the group G. It is clear that the value of c measures the degree of isolation of people from G and has negligible effect on the rest of population; this is clearly seen in both figures. On the other hand, the value of c has very significant effect on the people from G. Consider first Figure 10 giving proportions of infected people. One can clearly see that the purple line (group G, c = 0.25) is much lower that the solid red line (group G, c = 1) for all the time until the end of the epidemic, from May until August. In June, in particular, the number of infected people from G with c = 0.25 is about 40% of the number of infected people from G with c = 1.