Author: William Thomas Pike; Vikas Saini
Title: An international comparison of the second derivative of COVID-19 deaths after implementation of social distancing measures Document date: 2020_3_25
ID: ln26bux8_13
Snippet: These estimates are based on each of the eight countries following China's trajectory from the present. Due to their deaths before convergence, most would still expect from two to eight times the number of total and daily deaths. Based on this model, it would be unexceptional to see daily deaths of 1000 in Italy in the near future even as it remains on the trajectory, despite following the downwards trajectory of growth in daily death rates seen .....
Document: These estimates are based on each of the eight countries following China's trajectory from the present. Due to their deaths before convergence, most would still expect from two to eight times the number of total and daily deaths. Based on this model, it would be unexceptional to see daily deaths of 1000 in Italy in the near future even as it remains on the trajectory, despite following the downwards trajectory of growth in daily death rates seen in China. The exceptions are South Korea, which is much lower, and Germany and the Netherlands which appear to be roughly equivalent.
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