Author: Jose Manuel Rodriguez Llanes; Rafael Castro Delgado; Morten Gram Pedersen; Pedro Arcos Gonzalez; Matteo Meneghini
Title: Confronting COVID-19: Surging critical care capacity in Italy Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: fpp8osgs_14
Snippet: We proposed a hybrid approach, called here EpiCare, that gives equal relevance to the modelling approach and the epidemiological measures on health care used to estimate surged critical care capacity. The modelling approach itself is dominated by two principles: on one hand, parsimony and selection of a limited number of robust parameters to reduce uncertainty. On the other hand, the model requires previous validation with ground data (i.e., conf.....
Document: We proposed a hybrid approach, called here EpiCare, that gives equal relevance to the modelling approach and the epidemiological measures on health care used to estimate surged critical care capacity. The modelling approach itself is dominated by two principles: on one hand, parsimony and selection of a limited number of robust parameters to reduce uncertainty. On the other hand, the model requires previous validation with ground data (i.e., confirmed active cases, hospitalization rates) and additional testing of its predictive ability in a 5-10 day window to validate its usefulness for planning in at least the following 10 days. Consequently, especial attention is given to the choice of measures and their robustness over time.
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