Selected article for: "average rate and infected people"
Author: Peiliang SUN; Kang Li
Title: An SEIR Model for Assessment of Current COVID-19 Pandemic Situation in the UK
  • Document date: 2020_4_17
    • ID: 9mdxid0u_39
    Snippet: The model is fitted using the officially published data. Because the number of total reported cases may not precisely reflect the reality, the death toll is used instead to assess the pandemic progression in the UK. The results reveal that more than 610,000 people might have been infected by 1 April 2020 and the average death rate in last month is very likely to be greater than 1% and may be even higher than 2%. Also according to the proposed mod.....
    Document: The model is fitted using the officially published data. Because the number of total reported cases may not precisely reflect the reality, the death toll is used instead to assess the pandemic progression in the UK. The results reveal that more than 610,000 people might have been infected by 1 April 2020 and the average death rate in last month is very likely to be greater than 1% and may be even higher than 2%. Also according to the proposed model, the value of R 0 is much greater than the previously published values in the literature, if no intervention measure is implemented. The estimated range of R 0 is between 7.5-9 due to large proportion of patients with mild symptoms. However, if people could keep self-isolated after developing COVID-19 symptoms, then the reproduction ratio is about 2-3, which is comparable to the values published in the literature.

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