COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.08.20057463 doi: medRxiv preprint Contact rate represents the number of people an infected person has contact with per day while contact success rate is success rate an infected person infect other people. Since COVID-19 can be transferred through droplets of the infected person when coughing or sneezing which can go as far as 1 meter, 5 people is used as the contact rate. This estimate is to represent that within 1 meter radius, there can be an average of 6.5 persons in contact with the infected person in that very close proximity. Thus, 5 people is estimated to be a reasonable value to start with. However, those who become infected by touching surfaces contaminated with the droplets of infected person is difficult to model, hence is not included in our simulation.