Author: Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil
Title: COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics Document date: 2020_4_11
ID: 652vzlq6_75
Snippet: Data for actual total infected from 18 th March 2020 to 6 th April 2020 was used as benchmark for the projection as this is the duration with best fit of actual data and simulation output. The result of the MAPE calculation is as following table: Results from the simulation in Figure 19 is obtained by modeling the reduction of contact rate of the infected person from 1:5 to 1:1 during MCO2 (refer to Figure 20 where there are more enforcement in c.....
Document: Data for actual total infected from 18 th March 2020 to 6 th April 2020 was used as benchmark for the projection as this is the duration with best fit of actual data and simulation output. The result of the MAPE calculation is as following table: Results from the simulation in Figure 19 is obtained by modeling the reduction of contact rate of the infected person from 1:5 to 1:1 during MCO2 (refer to Figure 20 where there are more enforcement in comparison to MCO1). Contact rate of infected person during MCO 1 remains at 1:5, which means in MCO1, an infected person still has large number of contacts. The model is then expanded to reflect SIR model by including the number of recovered person in order to understand the trend of the active infected cases. The simulation is run from the start of MCO1 (18 th March 2020) and the output is compared to the actual data. the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.
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