COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia: Impact of lock-down on infection dynamics

Naomie Salim; Weng Howe Chan; Shuhaimi Mansor; Nor Erne Nazira Bazin; Safiya Amaran; Ahmad Athif Mohd Faudzi; Anazida Zainal; Sharin Hazlin Huspi; Eric Jiun Hooi Khoo; Shaekh Mohammad Shithil

Compared to actual total infected data from 18/03/20 to 06/04/20, Curve Fitting with Probability Density Function and Skewness Effect Modelling is the most accurate (99.99% accuracy). However, different models used different data, and they may not be accurate due to limited data but they can be used to provide more understanding of the pattern of spread. For instance, the SIR model basically give us an idea where based on the current data, how the outbreak would progress. We tried to measure for both periods before and after the implementation of the MCO. The peak result from the SIR model may not be absolutely accurate due to the limited data. However, the comparison of the modelled progression shows that implementation of the MCO where close contact has been minimized due to the social distancing can flatten the curve. If MCO 3 to be imposed, all measures must be taken to restrict the contact of an infected person as well as their contacts especially those who are under home surveillance and self-quarantine. As shown in the System Dynamic Model, the effectiveness of MCO2 is still not optimum.