COVID-19 Outbreak Situations in Bangladesh: An Empirical Analysis

Md Hasinur Rahaman Khan; Ahmed Hossain

As of today, we have found very few research works on COVID-19 that have been conducted using Bangladesh data. Recently, Islam et al. (2020) proposed a model to 3 measure the risk of infectious disease and predict the risk of COVID-19 transmission using Bangladesh data along with other four countries-United States, Australia, Canada and China. Paul et al. (2020) proposed a SEIR epidemic model that accommodates the effects of lockdown and individual based precautionary measures and used it to estimate model parameters from the epidemic data for three south asian countries-Bangladesh, India and Pakistan. Paul et al. (2020) used Bangladesh data up to 2nd April, 2020 by which, Bangladesh has only 95 infection cases and 9 deaths. However, their prediction model for Bangladesh may not give reasonable results because of sufficiently small sample. Mamun and Grith (2020) discussed possible suicide prevention strategies while the first COVID-19 suicide case in Bangladesh took place due to fear of COVID-19 and xenophobia. Neither of the three research works dealt with the analysis of current COVID-19 situations in Bangladesh and to make direct projections for incidence, deaths, hospital ICU beds, number of severe patients etc that are the main goals of this paper. These statistics may help government to take proper preparation to tackle the potential unprecidented situations in Bangladesh.