Author: Shovonlal Roy
Title: COVID-19 pandemic: Impact of lockdown, contact and non-contact transmissions on infection dynamics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 61ta81iy_10
Snippet: An universal assumption behind lockdown measures is that the rate of infection will reduce, thereby suppressing the spread of infection. Unsurprisingly, the model simulations generally confirms this assumption ( Fig. 2 ). Any level of reduction in transmission over a sufficiently-long lockdown period will lower the peak of infection from 'no-action' scenario ( Fig. 2) . The real success of lockdown measures, however, will be to keep the primary i.....
Document: An universal assumption behind lockdown measures is that the rate of infection will reduce, thereby suppressing the spread of infection. Unsurprisingly, the model simulations generally confirms this assumption ( Fig. 2 ). Any level of reduction in transmission over a sufficiently-long lockdown period will lower the peak of infection from 'no-action' scenario ( Fig. 2) . The real success of lockdown measures, however, will be to keep the primary infection peak always below a Country's health-services capacity (see, Fig. 2 , the horizontal red lines representing some hypothetical health-service capacities). But this is possible only if the transmission rates reduce considerably -see Fig. 2 for various scenarios, and the decrease in peak as a consequence.
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