Data-Driven Study of the the COVID-19 Pandemic via Age-Structured Modelling and Prediction of the Health System Failure in Brazil amid Diverse Intervention Strategies

Askery Canabarro; Elayne Tenorio; Renato Martins; Lais Martins; Samurai Brito; Rafael Chaves

Notwithstanding, the current measures are not enough. Our model predicts that even if the current NPIs are not relaxed, as early as mid April the number of severe cases requiring hospitalization will surpass the current number of available ICUs, starting the collapse of the health system. However, a intense quarantine, if implemented in the following days, can rapidly change the increase in the number of infections and keep the demand for ICUs below the threshold, amounting to hundred of thousands of saved lives. On the other hand, we demonstrate that the relaxation of the already imposed control measures in the next days, as currently debated at some spheres of the Brazilian federal government, would be catastrophic, with a total death toll passing the one million mark.