Defining high-value information for COVID-19 decision-making

Joshua A Salomon

Without additional information, however, there remains substantial uncertainty around both the no intervention and NPI scenarios. Additional information sources could narrow these ranges considerably. In particular, if new information signalled that social distancing efforts reduce average contacts by 40-60%, the majority of scenarios examined (84%) would not exceed hospital capacity by May 31. If additional information pointed to a relatively low burden of undetected infection (i.e. higher case ascertainment at baseline) (Figure 2) , this information would signal a longer time to reach the peak of the epidemic and higher peak compared to an alternative in which new information pointed to lower baseline case ascertainment. Combining the two types of new hypothetical information, Figure 3 shows that knowledge about the impact of social distancing measures would be much more informative for determining when hospital capacity could be reached, relative to the value of additional information about the fraction of cases ascertained.