Author: Patrick Jenny; David F Jenny; Hossein Gorji; Markus Arnoldini; Wolf-Dietrich Hardt
Title: Dynamic Modeling to Identify Mitigation Strategies for Covid-19 Pandemic Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: ngsstnpr_15
Snippet: The model was tuned with data of reported Covid-19 cases outside of China 1 from January 22 to March 12, 2020; see table 2. Note that it is important to employ data from a period before measures like social distancing were taken. The considered initial susceptible population size is n s (0) = n s,init = 6 384 631 490 (world population outside of China) and the reported number of deaths at the end of day 50 is 1 440. During the first 50 days ("tun.....
Document: The model was tuned with data of reported Covid-19 cases outside of China 1 from January 22 to March 12, 2020; see table 2. Note that it is important to employ data from a period before measures like social distancing were taken. The considered initial susceptible population size is n s (0) = n s,init = 6 384 631 490 (world population outside of China) and the reported number of deaths at the end of day 50 is 1 440. During the first 50 days ("tuning phase") n s ≈ n s,init and thus the model simplifies to
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