Epidemic analysis of COVID-19 in China by dynamical modeling

Liangrong Peng; Wuyue Yang; Dongyan Zhang; Changjing Zhuge; Liu Hong

Based on detailed analysis of the public data of NHC of China from Jan. 20th to Feb. 9th, we estimate several key parameters for COVID-19, like the latent time, the quarantine time and the basic reproduction number in a relatively reliable way, and predict the inflection point, possible ending time and final total infected cases for Hubei, Wuhan, Beijing, Shanghai, etc. Overall, the epidemic situations for Beijing and Shanghai are optimistic, which are expected to end up within two weeks (from Feb. 15th, 2020). Meanwhile, for most parts of mainland including the majority of cities in Hubei province, it will be no later than the middle of March. We should also point out that the situation in Wuhan city is still very severe. More effective policies and more efforts on medical care and clinical research are eagerly needed. We expect the final success of anti-epidemic will be reached at the beginning 11 All rights reserved. No reuse allowed without permission. author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.