Author: Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann
Title: Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics Document date: 2020_4_7
ID: 0uzma5vr_26
Snippet: Releasing NPIs at the present time will inevitably induce an acceleration of viral spreading in Germany and we would run into scenario A. In this scenario, the health care system will in expectation need a peak capacity of 500,000 ICUs or more, compared to about 10,000 free ICUs currently available (DIVI-Intensiv-Register 2020). Many patients in life-threatening condition will simply not be treated and die. The total number of expected deaths in .....
Document: Releasing NPIs at the present time will inevitably induce an acceleration of viral spreading in Germany and we would run into scenario A. In this scenario, the health care system will in expectation need a peak capacity of 500,000 ICUs or more, compared to about 10,000 free ICUs currently available (DIVI-Intensiv-Register 2020). Many patients in life-threatening condition will simply not be treated and die. The total number of expected deaths in this scenario is huge and not tolerable.
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