Estimate of the development of the epidemic reproduction number Rt from Coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 case data and implications for political measures based on prognostics

Sahamoddin Khailaie; Tanmay Mitra; Arnab Bandyopadhyay; Marta Schips; Pietro Mascheroni; Patrizio Vanella; Berit Lange; Sebastian Binder; Michael Meyer-Hermann

The copyright holder for this preprint In the second approach, we kept model parameters open and fitted them to the cases reported in different regions of Italy until March 20th, 2020. Thus, we include the initial phase of the outbreak with comparably low effects from the overwhelmed health care system. As data for cumulative infected, hospitalized, ICU, deaths, and recovered are available (Italy Data on Coronavirus 2020), the fitting was able to substantially narrow down the parameter space. Fitting was repeated for each region in Italy separately. The median value over the regions was used as default value for the Rt analysis. The diversity of parameter values determined the ranges of parameter variation ( Figure 5 ) used to determine the confidence interval of the Rt analysis.