Author: Robert Verity; Lucy C Okell; Ilaria Dorigatti; Peter Winskill; Charles Whittaker; Natsuko Imai; Gina Cuomo-Dannenburg; Hayley Thompson; Patrick Walker; Han Fu; Amy Dighe; Jamie Griffin; Anne Cori; Marc Baguelin; Sangeeta Bhatia; Adhiratha Boonyasiri; Zulma M Cucunuba; Rich Fitzjohn; Katy A M Gaythorpe; Will Green; Arran Hamlet; Wes Hinsley; Daniel Laydon; Gemma Nedjati-Gilani; Steven Riley; Sabine van-Elsand; Erik Volz; Haowei Wang; Yuanrong Wang; Xiayoue Xi; Christl Donnelly; Azra Ghani; Neil Ferguson
Title: Estimates of the severity of COVID-19 disease Document date: 2020_3_13
ID: 10n2u1b1_87
Snippet: For the special case that we model Here Pr( , ) is the joint prior distribution over and . We assume a Uniform(10,100) prior on and a Uniform(0.2,0.8) prior on , along with a fixed growth rate of = 0.14. We obtained the full posterior distributions of and by computing the joint distribution over a grid in increments of 0.05 and 0.005 respectively. We truncated the distribution by setting the likelihood to zero for combinations of and that generat.....
Document: For the special case that we model Here Pr( , ) is the joint prior distribution over and . We assume a Uniform(10,100) prior on and a Uniform(0.2,0.8) prior on , along with a fixed growth rate of = 0.14. We obtained the full posterior distributions of and by computing the joint distribution over a grid in increments of 0.05 and 0.005 respectively. We truncated the distribution by setting the likelihood to zero for combinations of and that generated gamma distributions with 95th percentile >100 days.
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