ESTIMATING COVID-19 INFECTIONS IN HOSPITAL WORKERS IN THE UNITED STATES

Junaid A Razzak; Junaid Ahmad Bhatti; Muhammad Ramzan Tahir; Omrana Pasha-Razzak

Age is one of the key determinants of risk of infections and death in China and Italy. 14, 15, 29, 30 Our estimates of hospital admission are based on Italian and Chinese experience with different population distribution. In the US, earlier results show a relatively younger population group being affected. 29 Similarly, the number of healthcare workers per bed is quite different in China, Italy and the US and was controlled in our analysis. We also controlled for the age distribution of the healthcare workforce including the age distribution of nurses and physicians in the US. We did not find data on other healthcare workers and assumed that their age distribution would be similar to nurses and physicians. We also assumed that the mortality rate amongst hospital will be three percent though the estimates for population level mortality have varied between 1.9 per million in South Korea to 258 per million to 395 per million in Lombardi, Italy. We were not able to do a sub-analysis of the mortality risk based on the presence of prevalent comorbidities like diabetes, heart diseases, and hypertension. We did not include some other interventions such as the shift length and number of hours working in the clinical areas. Earlier studies have found them to be a significant determinant of COVID-19 infection. 26 Finally, we did not look at the mental health issues and the morbidity caused by them.