Selected article for: "arrival time and peak number"
Author: Deqiang Li; Zhicheng Liu; Qinghe Liu; Zefei Gao; Junkai Zhu; Junyan Yang; Qiao Wang
Title: Estimating the Efficacy of Traffic Blockage and Quarantine for the Epidemic Caused by 2019-nCoV (COVID-19)
  • Document date: 2020_2_17
    • ID: 6f6t558e_35
    Snippet: 9, Jan. 16, Jan. 23 and Jan. 30, respectively. In this experiment, we assumed that the traffic flow between provinces would be completely cut off. As shown in Fig 5, when the traffic blockage factor ߬ increase by 0.1 for Hubei, the peak arrival time will be earlier and the peak number of cases will be lower. If the traffic blockage is one week earlier, the peak number of cases only decreased by 3.10% -3.79%, and two weeks by 6.64% -8.08%. This i.....
    Document: 9, Jan. 16, Jan. 23 and Jan. 30, respectively. In this experiment, we assumed that the traffic flow between provinces would be completely cut off. As shown in Fig 5, when the traffic blockage factor ߬ increase by 0.1 for Hubei, the peak arrival time will be earlier and the peak number of cases will be lower. If the traffic blockage is one week earlier, the peak number of cases only decreased by 3.10% -3.79%, and two weeks by 6.64% -8.08%. This illustrates that in the eve of city closure in Wuhan, the epidemic in Hubei province had been severe, and the transmission rate was quite high. However, in other provinces outside Hubei, if the traffic blockage is one week earlier, the peak number of cases will decrease by 15.30% -16.70%, and two weeks earlier, it will decrease by 31.74% -33.09% .

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