Author: Dayton G Thorpe; Kelsey Lyberger
Title: Estimating the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States Document date: 2020_4_17
ID: 7sexfkxq_4
Snippet: There are several possible sources of error we do not account for. First, we assume COVID-19 fatalities are reported correctly. If they are underreported, the infection estimates here will be underestimates. Second, the model extrapolates exponential growth rates without reference to the size of the population. If the estimated attack rate approaches the level of herd immunity, the model likely overestimates the total number of infections. Third,.....
Document: There are several possible sources of error we do not account for. First, we assume COVID-19 fatalities are reported correctly. If they are underreported, the infection estimates here will be underestimates. Second, the model extrapolates exponential growth rates without reference to the size of the population. If the estimated attack rate approaches the level of herd immunity, the model likely overestimates the total number of infections. Third, we assume the IFR is known exactly. Propagating the error from the IFR would increase the width of our confidence intervals.
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