Estimating unobserved SARS-CoV-2 infections in the United States

Alex Perkins; Sean M. Cavany; Sean M Moore; Rachel J Oidtman; Anita Lerch; Marya Poterek

Due to a lack of prior estimates for two parameters, we jointly estimated the proportion of imported symptomatic infections that were detected, ρ travel , and the relative infectiousness of asymptomatic infections, . We fitted these parameters to the total number of deaths resulting from locally acquired SARS-CoV-2 infections in the US by March 12. To approximate a likelihood for given values of ρ travel and , we simulated 200 replicate time series of imported infections, each based on the same value of ρ travel , and then simulated local transmission using the same value of for each of the 200 replicates. For each of these 200 replicate simulations, we calculated the cumulative number of infections, I D , that, based on their timing, could have resulted in death by March 12. We then calculated the likelihood of the reported number of deaths, D, . CC-BY 4.0 International license It is made available under a author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.