Author: Zian Zhuang; Peihua Cao; Shi Zhao; Yijun Lou; Weiming Wang; Shu Yang; Lin Yang; Daihai He
Title: Estimation of local novel coronavirus (COVID-19) cases in Wuhan, China from off-site reported cases and population flow data from different sources Document date: 2020_3_2
ID: 4f84pc83_35
Snippet: Population flow data were used in estimating the size of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China before the lock down. We found that population flow data from different sources may lead to significantly different estimates, although all estimates suggested much larger sizes than officially reported. Using cases reported off-site to estimate the size (course) of the epidemic in the epicenter is a common technique and will be used in future epidem.....
Document: Population flow data were used in estimating the size of the epidemic of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China before the lock down. We found that population flow data from different sources may lead to significantly different estimates, although all estimates suggested much larger sizes than officially reported. Using cases reported off-site to estimate the size (course) of the epidemic in the epicenter is a common technique and will be used in future epidemics, especially when the epicenter lacks medical resources thus cases are under-reported. We argue that reliability of estimates of population flow data should be taken into consideration.
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