Selected article for: "case number and total case number"
Author: Junko Kurita; Yoshiyuki Sugishita; Tamie Sugawara; Yasushi Ohkusa
Title: Estimation of protection for COVID-19 in children from epidemiological information and estimate effect of policy in Japan
  • Document date: 2020_3_30
    • ID: c5p0yp04_17
    Snippet: February. Using the estimated R 0 and protection rate in children, we simulate the effect of SC and VSC assuming hypothetical change in the contact matrix. We assumed that the SC decrease contact frequencies among children to be one-tenth, the rise in contacts of children with adult to be twice, the rise in contacts of adults with children to be four-thirds by 33.3%, and the decline in contacts among adults by 20%. Conversely, VEC was assumed to .....
    Document: February. Using the estimated R 0 and protection rate in children, we simulate the effect of SC and VSC assuming hypothetical change in the contact matrix. We assumed that the SC decrease contact frequencies among children to be one-tenth, the rise in contacts of children with adult to be twice, the rise in contacts of adults with children to be four-thirds by 33.3%, and the decline in contacts among adults by 20%. Conversely, VEC was assumed to decrease contacts among adults by 20% and among elderly people by 25%. In the simulation with application of both of SC and VEC, the contact matrix was assumed to change to be the sum of effect of SC and VEC. To evaluate SC and VEC, we compare the total number of patients with any symptoms between the base case and intervention. We calculate 95% CI through bootstrapped distribution of total number of patients with intervention over the total number of patients in the base case.

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