Estimation of the epidemic properties of the 2019 novel coronavirus: A mathematical modeling study

Jinghua Li; Yijing Wang; Stuart Gilmour; Mengying Wang; Daisuke Yoneoka; Ying Wang; Xinyi You; Jing Gu; Chun Hao; Liping Peng; Zhicheng Du; Dong Roman Xu; Yuantao Hao

A striking feature of our analysis is the very high value of the basic reproduction number we identified in the period of time up to the closure of Wuhan city. Three of our modeling methods -including the best-fitting method based on a Poisson loss function -identified a value of " greater than 5, with some possibility of a value over 6. Basic reproduction numbers in the 5-7 range are consistent with extremely contagious diseases such as mumps and smallpox, and indicate a disease with a very high risk of becoming a global pandemic. This finding has significant implications for cities like Singapore, Japan and London which are beginning to experience the first signs of spread of the disease without importation. In light of the epidemic threat identified here, these cities should consider implementing more aggressive prevention policies as necessary, while respecting human rights and the dignity of affected individuals and of those who might be disadvantaged by stricter quarantine and control mechanisms.