Author: Faiza Syed; Syed Sibgatullah
Title: Estimation of the Final Size of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Pakistan Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: b7p92sb1_32
Snippet: According to the simulations the peak infection day will occur on 26 th May 2020, where 5,921,1209 persons could get infected with the virus in a single day. Previous reports from China 8 have indicated that COVID-19 initially follows an exponential growth pattern 9 coupled with asymptomatic carriers 10 , leads to a rapid increase in the number of infections. Correlating the reported data with our simulations, we can assume that if left unchecked.....
Document: According to the simulations the peak infection day will occur on 26 th May 2020, where 5,921,1209 persons could get infected with the virus in a single day. Previous reports from China 8 have indicated that COVID-19 initially follows an exponential growth pattern 9 coupled with asymptomatic carriers 10 , leads to a rapid increase in the number of infections. Correlating the reported data with our simulations, we can assume that if left unchecked, the disease can spread at an unprecedented rate in Pakistan, especially in closely knit communities and densely populated areas.
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