Author: Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio
Title: Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19 Document date: 2020_4_14
ID: mh7mzuoe_42
Snippet: As usual, the most representative case can be based on actual infection data from where containment of contagion has already been successfully applied, namely in China where it originated. Using data reported by the John Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering, by March, 2020, there were, n= 81,000 infections and some 3200 deaths in China with a falling to near-zero rate. So with a national population of N+M =1,400,000,000, the overall .....
Document: As usual, the most representative case can be based on actual infection data from where containment of contagion has already been successfully applied, namely in China where it originated. Using data reported by the John Hopkins Center for System Science and Engineering, by March, 2020, there were, n= 81,000 infections and some 3200 deaths in China with a falling to near-zero rate. So with a national population of N+M =1,400,000,000, the overall probable risk of infection is about 0.00006, or one in 17,000, (or about six in 100,000)6. Locally, in some cities/regions it is ten times higher, but although comparable to infectious death rates, the overall CoVid-19 death rate in China was on average one in nearly half a million people, much lower than deaths from other infectious diseases. That is a significant reduction in the risk of infection: countermeasures have worked.
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