Estimation of Tunisia COVID-19 infected cases based on mortality rate

Ines Abdeljaoued-Tej; Marc Dhenain

is the (which was not peer-reviewed) The copyright holder for this preprint . https://doi.org /10.1101 /10. /2020 An epidemic outbreak of a new human coronavirus COVID-19 will occur in Tunisia. For this outbreak, the unreported cases and the disease transmission rate are not identified. In order to recover these values from reported medical data, this simple mathematical model for estimating the COVID-19 cases is used. The knowledge of the cumulative reported symptomatic and asymptomatic infectious cases and assuming the infectious delay until death to be between 12 days and 18 days, this model estimates the number of infected cases. Then numerical simulations of the model are done to predict forward in time the severity of the epidemic, with adjusted data. We find that the most pessimistic number of infected people is 22 320 and the most optimistic is 744 at April 12 th , 2020, and when the mortality rate is equal to 2%, the estimation number is equal to 5 580 (the number of reported cases at this date is 707 people).