Analysing recovery from pandemics by Learning Theory: the case of CoVid-19

Romney B. Duffey; Enrico Zio

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10. 1101 The comparisons of the observed decreasing infection rate for both (independent) countries (China data circles, S. Korea open triangles) and the widely used IHME model projections with the Universal Learning Curve shown in the Figures 4 and 5 are compelling. The data fits with learning curve theory, which we know already incidentally fits millions of events, accidents and trends. China, Italy and S. Korea have indeed learned how to control the spread of a viral pandemic. All other countries/systems/people have to do to predict the infection rate evolution is to follow the same trend after first reaching their rate peak. This type of analysis allows countries and systems to compare the effectiveness of their countermeasures implemented to control the pandemics and the related timescales.