Author: Feng Lin; Yi Huang; Huifang Zhang; Xu He; Yonghua Yin; Jiaxin Liu
Title: Evaluating the different control policies for COVID-19 between mainland China and European countries by a mathematical model in the confirmed cases Document date: 2020_4_22
ID: lgdsi48m_37
Snippet: In view of the simulation by mathematical model, the initial number of the susceptible cases might be difficult to be determined. This might be demonstrated by the report that 60% of active cases might have no symptoms but could infect other healthy people [17] [18] [19] . And it is reported that the infected cases are of strong infection when they appeared to have no symptoms [24] . So when the first infected person appears in some area, the inf.....
Document: In view of the simulation by mathematical model, the initial number of the susceptible cases might be difficult to be determined. This might be demonstrated by the report that 60% of active cases might have no symptoms but could infect other healthy people [17] [18] [19] . And it is reported that the infected cases are of strong infection when they appeared to have no symptoms [24] . So when the first infected person appears in some area, the infected ones with no symptoms might convert the healthy people into the susceptible ones without records. In the hypothesised simulation, the actual data seemed to be closer to the simulated curves. But the increasing rate of the simulation is not as large as that in the observed data. The reason might be that the transportation control was not considered in this mechanism, which has already been mentioned in the previous section. This implies that banning of the traffic is an effective way to prevent the spreading of disease.
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