Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on the early global spread of COVID-19

Aniruddha Adiga; Srinivasan Venkatramanan; James Schlitt; Akhil Peddireddy; Allan Dickerman; Andrei Bura; Andrew Warren; Brian D Klahn; Chunhong Mao; Dawen Xie; Dustin Machi; Erin Raymond; Fanchao Meng; Golda Barrow; Henning Mortveit; Jiangzhuo Chen; Jim Walke; Joshua Goldstein; Mandy L Wilson; Mark Orr; Przemyslaw Porebski; Pyrros A Telionis; Richard Beckman; Stefan Hoops; Stephen Eubank; Young Yun Baek; Bryan Lewis; Madhav Marathe; Chris Barrett

We then model the impact of flight suspensions to and from China that is being witnessed globally, while ensuring that the effective distances with and without interventions (i.e., suspensions) are comparable through normalization. The reduced flow from China results in a modified network with reduced edge weights and almost all countries see an increase in their effective distance from China ( Figure 3) , with some countries having higher increase than others. Finally, we also present an analysis comparing the difference in estimated versus reported time of arrival, with respect to the different component scores of IDVI (Figure 4) , to investigate potential factors that may explain the reporting delays.