Evaluating the impact of international airline suspensions on the early global spread of COVID-19

Aniruddha Adiga; Srinivasan Venkatramanan; James Schlitt; Akhil Peddireddy; Allan Dickerman; Andrei Bura; Andrew Warren; Brian D Klahn; Chunhong Mao; Dawen Xie; Dustin Machi; Erin Raymond; Fanchao Meng; Golda Barrow; Henning Mortveit; Jiangzhuo Chen; Jim Walke; Joshua Goldstein; Mandy L Wilson; Mark Orr; Przemyslaw Porebski; Pyrros A Telionis; Richard Beckman; Stefan Hoops; Stephen Eubank; Young Yun Baek; Bryan Lewis; Madhav Marathe; Chris Barrett

The copyright holder for this preprint (which was not peer-reviewed) is the . https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.20.20025882 doi: medRxiv preprint or later (red) than predicted. The results of univariate regressions of each of the IDVI scores is shown in Table 1 . We generally observe the negative relationship between the reporting delays (lower IDVI leads to higher reporting delays). Of the different normed scores, we see that the political scores (domestic and international) have the highest coefficients of determination (24% and 18% respectively, p < 0.05). The domestic score includes as components indicators of governance, corruption, decentralization, government stability, etc. while the international score captures aspects such as collaboration, international organization support and aid dependence. These are aspects which could have direct or indirect bearing on the detection and reporting of infectious disease outbreaks. The overall IDVI score explains about 16% of the variance (p < 0.05). While this is a reasonable first step, and does explain some of the apparent late reporting we are observing, we note that the estimated reporting delay may need to be replaced by other metrics of reporting Figure 4 . Comparison between estimated reporting delay and the overall normed IDVI score for countries reporting by February 25th 2020. Countries which reported later than estimated are colored in red, while those reporting earlier than estimated are colored in blue. The length of the lines represent the difference between reported and predicted ToAs. deficiency derived from case surveillance, as new countries continue to report cases of COVID-19.