Author: Alberto Aleta; Yamir Moreno
Title: Evaluation of the potential incidence of COVID-19 and effectiveness of contention measures in Spain: a data-driven approach Document date: 2020_3_6
ID: 38f8ftmh_39
Snippet: To ensure that this quantity is able to predict correctly the spreading in our metapopulation, we first implement an SIR model and study the effect of using a different number of seeds, figure 10 . Regardless on the number of seeds, the correlation between the obtained values and the theoretical ones is really large. However, the actual value depends on the number of initial seeds. Thus, without any modification this measure can help us determine.....
Document: To ensure that this quantity is able to predict correctly the spreading in our metapopulation, we first implement an SIR model and study the effect of using a different number of seeds, figure 10 . Regardless on the number of seeds, the correlation between the obtained values and the theoretical ones is really large. However, the actual value depends on the number of initial seeds. Thus, without any modification this measure can help us determine the arrival order, i.e., to which provinces the disease should arrive first, but not the precise time. Nonetheless, depending on the number of seeds, a small correction has to be applied.
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