Author: Joel Hellewell; Sam Abbott; Amy Gimma; Nikos I Bosse; Christopher I Jarvis; Timothy W Russell; James D Munday; Adam J Kucharski; W John Edmunds; CMMID nCoV working group; Sebastian Funk; Rosalind M Eggo
Title: Feasibility of controlling 2019-nCoV outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts Document date: 2020_2_11
ID: a8ig607t_43
Snippet: In many scenarios there were between 25 and 100 symptomatic cases within a week ( Figure 5 ), all of whom would need isolation and would require contact tracing. The maximum number of weekly cases may appear counterintuitive because a lower maximum number of weekly cases is not associated with higher outbreak control. This occurs because with better contact tracing it becomes possible to control outbreaks with higher numbers of weekly cases. Th.....
Document: In many scenarios there were between 25 and 100 symptomatic cases within a week ( Figure 5 ), all of whom would need isolation and would require contact tracing. The maximum number of weekly cases may appear counterintuitive because a lower maximum number of weekly cases is not associated with higher outbreak control. This occurs because with better contact tracing it becomes possible to control outbreaks with higher numbers of weekly cases. The maximum number of weekly cases is lower if the initial number of cases is 5 and higher if it is 40 (see supplement). In the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Liberia, each case reported between 6 and 20 contacts 8 , and the number of contacts may be higher, as seen in MERS outbreaks 10 . Tracing 20 contacts per case could mean up to 2,000 contacts in the week of peak incidence.
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