Feasibility Study of Mitigation and Suppression Intervention Strategies for Controlling COVID-19 Outbreaks in London and Wuhan

Po Yang; Jun Qi; Shuhao Zhang; Xulong Wang; Gaoshan Bi; Yun Yang; Bin Sheng

The results showed that in the peak time, there would be up to 1.16 million, 210 thousand, 450 thousand and 900 thousand Exposed population (infection but no symptoms) at London, Wuhan, UK and Hubei. This implied that: 1) the total infectious population of these four cases would be 7.76 million in London, 12.27 million in Wuhan, 50.95 million in Hubei and 48.46 million in the UK. 2) The total death of these four cases would be 761 thousand in London, 120 thousand in Wuhan, 493 thousand in Hubei and 475 thousand in the UK. It equalled to about over 80% of total population of each region will be infectious, with the morality rate nearly 1%. It showed that without intervention, the outbreak of COVID-19 would lead to huge infections and deaths. The main reason was that COVID-19 was estimated as relatively high production number R0 up to 3 [14] , where the transmission ratio β2 from Susceptible to Exposed is up to 78%. Thus, in some regions with high migration and dense population, it would easily lead to an outbreak.