Author: Rosario Megna
Title: First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast Document date: 2020_3_30
ID: cxmw7bfu_20
Snippet: One month after the outbreak in Italy the situation remains complicated. Despite the high number of performed swabs as compared to the confirmed cases, the epidemic has been growing with a very high rate. COVID-19 is proving to have a high capacity for infection, probably reinforced by asymptomatic people, who represent a real danger for elderly and fragile individuals. In particular, the disease is showing to be lethal for the elderly (96% in pa.....
Document: One month after the outbreak in Italy the situation remains complicated. Despite the high number of performed swabs as compared to the confirmed cases, the epidemic has been growing with a very high rate. COVID-19 is proving to have a high capacity for infection, probably reinforced by asymptomatic people, who represent a real danger for elderly and fragile individuals. In particular, the disease is showing to be lethal for the elderly (96% in patients aged ≥ 60) and men (71%) [10]. On the date we finalized this article (26 March 2020), the trend of daily distribution of confirmed cases seems to show an initial decline of the growth of the epidemic. The total number of confirmed cases will eventually exceed those that occurred in China. The forecast model in real-time indicates a total number of national cases greater than 110,000 patients, with a figure of approximately 46,000 in Lombardy only.
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