Author: Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole
Title: Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: i37ygb2z_16
Snippet: Nevertheless, we set out to provide the earliest possible data-driven forecast and therefore explicitly accept the limitations of the data that were available to us at the time. Our approach has been to keep the model as parsimonious as possible, with parameter estimates from the existing literature, to give a rough guide to early surge needs. With the small amount of available data, there are some specific limitations which need to be discussed......
Document: Nevertheless, we set out to provide the earliest possible data-driven forecast and therefore explicitly accept the limitations of the data that were available to us at the time. Our approach has been to keep the model as parsimonious as possible, with parameter estimates from the existing literature, to give a rough guide to early surge needs. With the small amount of available data, there are some specific limitations which need to be discussed. Our use of an updated, online resource we hope is a novel way of allowing interested parties to interact with the mathematical assumptions and formulate their own opinions.
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