Forecasting ultra-early intensive care strain from COVID-19 in England

Jacob Deasy; Emma Rocheteau; Katharina Kohler; Daniel J. Stubbs; Peitro Barbiero; Pietro Liò; Ari Ercole

At the time of writing, the potential challenge that faces the health system (including intensive care) is essentially without precedent and has resulted in social and political interventions that have never been seen in peacetime. As such, there is little relevant precedent to judge the utility of approaches such as ours against. We hope that regardless of the assumptions inherent within our model (which we feel are based on best available data) that the overarching message of the need for urgent surge capacity is timely. Finally, we hope that our transparency in releasing our code, model assumptions, and results in a dynamic web format embodies a new paradigm in rapidly developed and reviewed science that persists beyond the current pandemic.