Author: Anna L. Ziff; Robert M. Ziff
Title: Fractal kinetics of COVID-19 pandemic Document date: 2020_2_20
ID: jljjqs6m_33
Snippet: For illustration purposes, consider periods 8-27. The estimated coefficient is approximately 2.27 (the bootstrapped standard error with 5,000 replications is 0.014). This would imply that as the number of days of the pandemic increases by a factor of 2 1/2.27 = 1.357, the number of cases will double. Thus, starting from day 27 (Feb. 16) with 1,669 deaths, the number of deaths will double to approximately 3,340 on day 37 (Feb. 22), and then double.....
Document: For illustration purposes, consider periods 8-27. The estimated coefficient is approximately 2.27 (the bootstrapped standard error with 5,000 replications is 0.014). This would imply that as the number of days of the pandemic increases by a factor of 2 1/2.27 = 1.357, the number of cases will double. Thus, starting from day 27 (Feb. 16) with 1,669 deaths, the number of deaths will double to approximately 3,340 on day 37 (Feb. 22), and then double again to 6,680 on day 50 (March 10), and double again to 13,350 on day 67 (March 27). This is a large number of fatalities, but not nearly as large as if the growth were exponential.
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