Selected article for: "basic reproduction number and novel coronavirus"
Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world
  • Document date: 2020_3_16
    • ID: 9607dy2o_1
    Snippet: Starting from Hubei province in China, the novel coronavirus (COVID -19) has been spreading all over the world, after two months of outbreak in China. Facing uncertainty and irresolution in A lot of efforts have been made in estimating the basic reproduction number R0 and predict the future trajectory of the coronavirus (COVID-2019) outbreak in the first quarter of 2020. In this paper, we focus on using phenomenological models without detailed mi.....
    Document: Starting from Hubei province in China, the novel coronavirus (COVID -19) has been spreading all over the world, after two months of outbreak in China. Facing uncertainty and irresolution in A lot of efforts have been made in estimating the basic reproduction number R0 and predict the future trajectory of the coronavirus (COVID-2019) outbreak in the first quarter of 2020. In this paper, we focus on using phenomenological models without detailed microscopic foundations, but which have the advantage of allowing simple calibrations to the empirical reported data and providing transparent interpretations. This simple and top-down method can provide straightforward insights regarding the status of the epidemics and future scenarios of the outbreak.

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