Author: Ke Wu; Didier Darcet; Qian Wang; Didier Sornette
Title: Generalized logistic growth modeling of the COVID-19 outbreak in 29 provinces in China and in the rest of the world Document date: 2020_3_16
ID: 9607dy2o_21
Snippet: of the confirmed cases is plotted in log scale against time. We can observe two exponential decay regimes of the growth rate with two different decay parameters before and after Feb-14, 2020. The green line is the fitted linear regression line (of the logarithm of the growth rate as a function of time) for the data from Jan-25 to Feb 14, 2020, yielding an exponential decay parameter equal to -0.157 per day (95% CI: (-0.164, -0.150)). This indicat.....
Document: of the confirmed cases is plotted in log scale against time. We can observe two exponential decay regimes of the growth rate with two different decay parameters before and after Feb-14, 2020. The green line is the fitted linear regression line (of the logarithm of the growth rate as a function of time) for the data from Jan-25 to Feb 14, 2020, yielding an exponential decay parameter equal to -0.157 per day (95% CI: (-0.164, -0.150)). This indicates that, after the lockdown of Wuhan city on Jan 23 and the top-level health emergency activated in most provinces on Jan 25, the transmission in provinces outside Hubei has been contained with a relatively fast exponential decay of the growth rate from a value starting at more than 100% to around 2% on
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