Author: Elizabeth T Chin; Benjamin Q Huynh; Nathan C Lo; Trevor Hastie; Sanjay Basu
Title: Healthcare worker absenteeism, child care costs, and COVID-19 school closures: a simulation analysis Document date: 2020_3_23
ID: 4kzv06e6_34
Snippet: When assuming R 0 = 2.0, our national-level SEIR model estimated a 7.38% and 7.22% reduction in peak demand for hospital beds and ICU beds, respectively. Our county-level estimates showed a reduction in peak hospitalization and ICU rates for all counties under school closure conditions, with substantial variation in hospital demand across counties, ranging from a reduction in peak demand of 5.87% and 9.08% for hospital beds and 5.75% and 8.83% fo.....
Document: When assuming R 0 = 2.0, our national-level SEIR model estimated a 7.38% and 7.22% reduction in peak demand for hospital beds and ICU beds, respectively. Our county-level estimates showed a reduction in peak hospitalization and ICU rates for all counties under school closure conditions, with substantial variation in hospital demand across counties, ranging from a reduction in peak demand of 5.87% and 9.08% for hospital beds and 5.75% and 8.83% for ICU beds (Figure 2 ). Our sensitivity analyses show the effectiveness of school closures decreases with increasing R 0 values, which is consistent with past findings 32 . We observe from our models a reduction in hospital demand as a result of school closures with and without increased household interactions (Supplement Table 2 ).
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