Impact of city and residential unit lockdowns on prevention and control of COVID-19

Peng Shao

We examined variances in the numbers of individuals in D state across 81 cities. Variance in the proportions of deaths across these cities at a steady state was larger when fewer hospital beds were added ( Figure 3D ; DHA = 2; variance, ~ 0.04). In contrary, variance in the proportions of deaths across these cities at a steady state was smaller when more hospital beds were added to core cities ( Figure 3F ; DHA = 10; variance, ~ 0.005). Overall, after implementing measures to lock down the cities, adding more hospital beds effectively improved cure rates and reduced mortality rates. Moreover, adding more hospital beds to core cities resulted in a low variance in the ratios (%) of deaths in the 81 cities. This indicated that increasing the amount of medical resources (number of hospital beds) could effectively reduce mortality rates in cities under lockdown. Figure 4 shows the proportions of individuals in the five states in the SAIRD model and the number of available hospital beds after implementing measures to lock down residential units. The DLU was set at 0.9 and the TLU at 10, 20, and 30. When residential units were placed under lockdown sooner ( Figure 4A ; TLU = 10), the proportions of individuals in S state when steady state was reached was 0.95. This indicated more uninfected, and less infected individuals. Later lockdown ( Figure 4C ; TLU = 30), resulted in ~ 15% of the population being in the S state when steady state was reached. This indicated less uninfected individuals and more infected individuals. Later implementation of measures to lock down residential units ( Figure 4F , TLU = 30), resulted in more I individuals, which led to a worsened bed shortage (a greater negative peak of available hospital beds). Sooner implementation of residential unit lockdown measures ( Figure 4D , TLU = 10), resulted in less individuals becoming infected. Thus, a bed shortage did not arise. Overall, the lockdown of residential units effectively controlled the spread of the epidemic, particularly when implemented sooner. This was reflected by lower infection rates and a sufficient number of hospital beds. is the author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity.