Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas

Xutong Wang; Remy F Pasco; Zhanwei Du; Michaela Petty; Spencer J Fox; Alison P Galvani; Michael Pignone; S. Claiborne Johnston; Lauren Ancel Meyers

Although our model incorporates considerable detail regarding the natural history of COVID-19, age-and location-specific contact patterns, and the demographic and risk composition of the Austin-Round Rock MSA, it does not explicitly capture neighborhood, household or other community structure that can serve to amplify or impede transmission [55] [56] [57] . In addition, we ignore the possible importation of COVID-19 cases from other cities, under the assumption that the additional cases will have a negligible impact particularly during the period of exponential growth. Our model also does not evaluate other potentially effective interventions such as increased levels of selective testing and isolation.