Improving early epidemiological assessment of emerging Aedes-transmitted epidemics using historical data

Julien Riou; Chiara Poletto; Pierre-Yves Boëlle

The R and L priors were derived from the analysis of datasets D2 and D3 in three steps. We rst analysed jointly the three CHIKV epidemics in dataset D2 using model 1, introducing a two-level hierarchical structure for the island-specic parameters: an island-specic reproduction number R 0,C,i sampled from a top-level regional distribution N (µ R 0 ,C , σ R 0 ,C ), and similarly logit(ρ C,i ) ∼ N (µ ρ C , σ ρ C ) for the logit of the reporting rate. We obtained the posterior distributions of these parameters for the CHIKV outbreaks in each island π(R 0,C,i , ρ C,i |D2), as well as that of the hyperparameters π(µ R 0 ,C , σ R 0 ,C , µ ρ,C , σ ρ,C |D2).