Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_4
Snippet: From the observed case numbers of COVID-19, we can quantify the impact of these measures on the spread (Fig. 1) . As of April 10, we have evidence of the first change point in the spreading rate from λ 0 = 0. 40 March 18) . Both changes in λ slowed the spread of the virus, but still imply exponential growth (Fig. 1, red and orange traces) . To contain the disease spread, and turn from exponential growth to a decline of novel cases, a further de.....
Document: From the observed case numbers of COVID-19, we can quantify the impact of these measures on the spread (Fig. 1) . As of April 10, we have evidence of the first change point in the spreading rate from λ 0 = 0. 40 March 18) . Both changes in λ slowed the spread of the virus, but still imply exponential growth (Fig. 1, red and orange traces) . To contain the disease spread, and turn from exponential growth to a decline of novel cases, a further decrease in λ is necessary. We have first indications that this transition has been reached by the third change-point around March 23 (CI: March 21 to March 25) .
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