Author: Jonas Dehning; Johannes Zierenberg; Frank Paul Spitzner; Michael Wibral; Joao Pinheiro Neto; Michael Wilczek; Viola Priesemann
Title: Inferring COVID-19 spreading rates and potential change points for case number forecasts Document date: 2020_4_6
ID: c8zfz8qt_74
Snippet: author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. S4 . Inference with a more involved SEIR-like model. Two additions were made to the SIR-model: (1) It includes an explicit incubation period during which infected people are not infectious, in the spirit of a SEIR model. In contrast to usual SEIR models, the length of incubation period is not exponentially distributed but has a lognormal distribution to match .....
Document: author/funder, who has granted medRxiv a license to display the preprint in perpetuity. S4 . Inference with a more involved SEIR-like model. Two additions were made to the SIR-model: (1) It includes an explicit incubation period during which infected people are not infectious, in the spirit of a SEIR model. In contrast to usual SEIR models, the length of incubation period is not exponentially distributed but has a lognormal distribution to match the characteristic incubation time of COVID-19. The incubation period has as prior a normal distribution with median Normal(5, 1) (days) and a scale parameter σ of 0.418 [32] .
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